Identifying Value in Sports Betting

Betting involves placing a wager on an outcome of a sports event and getting paid if that outcome is achieved. There are many different types of bets, including moneylines, spreads, and parlays. Some bettors choose to place a bet on the winner of a game, while others like to bet on more specific outcomes such as how many points a team will score. There are also prop bets, which are wagers on things other than the winners and losers of a game, such as how many goals a particular player will score.

One of the most important aspects of betting is identifying value. This means finding bets that have a greater chance of winning than the odds suggest. It’s the goal of every bettor to make bets with positive expected value (EV) over time.

EV is calculated by comparing the probability of a bet winning against the amount of money that bettors will lose on it. It’s important to remember that EV doesn’t include the vig, which is the fee charged by the bookmaker. Vig plays a big role in determining the EV of a bet, so bettors should shop around for the best vig rates before placing their bets.

Another strategy is to look for high probability results, which can be done by shopping for inflated odds. For example, a fighter’s odds can change in real-time after they score a knockdown. This can be a great opportunity for a value bet on a fighter who is rocked, wobbly, and possibly hurt but for some reason still a favorite. This is called fading the public, and it can be very profitable.

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