Sports Betting – How to Sharpen Your Nose For Value

A key to success in betting is having an intuitive sense for value. This requires extensive and meticulous research on a sport or league you plan to specialise in, from team statistics and history to injury reports and weather conditions. It takes time, and there will be weeks when it feels like a chore, but working at it religiously week in, week out, for the league you’re interested in can sharpen your nose for value.

A bettor’s best tool is a calculator that converts odds into implied probability, which provides an indication of the likelihood a result will occur. This is useful when assessing whether or not a particular bet offers value, but it’s important to use the data as a starting point and not an endpoint. Market trends and public opinion can influence oddsmakers, creating inflated or diminished probabilities that do not reflect true likelihood.

Prop bets (property bets) are based on aspects of the game or event that don’t show up in the boxscore. These include player-based wagers, such as Over or Under goals scored in a match, and team-based bets, such as the number of points a side will win by.

While complex betting strategies can be tempting, it’s best to stick with a system that allows you to categorize each play according to its confidence level and risk tolerance. For example, you could allocate six percent of your bankroll to top plays, five percent to average bets, and four or 3.5 percent to borderline wagers.

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